no place like home

AJC poll, 44% Dems, 43% GOP?

on January 14 | in In Focus | by | with 1 Comment

There’s no place like home.

We talked to Todd Rehm on Tuesday’s edition of Georgia’s Morning news with Zoller and Bryant about the AJC poll and here’s what he had to say:

Rehm at Georgia Pundit took a long look at the AJC poll and found this:

There’s a lot of data that has been released in the AJC poll, and I’m working on a poll of my own right now, so I haven’t had time to dive into the AJC’s results in depth yet, so I’ll just offer a few tidbits here. The AJC poll released on the Governor’s race shows the following:

An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll of 802 registered voters showed Deal with 47 percent support in a head-to-head matchup against 38 percent for state Sen. Jason Carter, his likely Democratic opponent.

But for sophisticated analysts, here’s the money quote:

Among respondents, 44 percent identified themselves as a Democrat or Democratic-leaning, while 43 percent identified as Republican or Republican-leaning.

That, my friends, is simply inconceivable. I believe that there currently exists a +10 point Republican advantage in the electorate. How did this happen? Let’s look at the raw data, which to their credit, the AJC released.

Pretty surprising and would have to be done by design.  What pollster thought there was an equal number of Democrats and Republicans in Georgia?  An AJC insider tells me they said the independents count as Republicans.

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One Response to AJC poll, 44% Dems, 43% GOP?

  1. [...] radio yesterday with Martha Zoller and Tim Bryant, discussing this very question, and I said that I think there’s a 5-to-10 point Republican margin. The exact figures are 35.2% Republican, 34.16% Independent, and 30.42% Democratic. Related [...]

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