It looks like there is a budget deal ahead of the December 13th deadline for the committee created by the deal that was struck in October. Are you tired of this? I am, but happy we know something. Is your head spinning? Mine is, but I’m ready to make the shift to Sugar Plum Fairies. It’s been said this deal was struck weeks ago and the last couple of weeks was spent getting folks to sign on.
This deal will pass. Something on the order of 300 “Yes” votes in the House. Jamie Dupree and others believe the Senate will have around 70 “Yes” votes. This will be a bi-partisan deal.
It was originally thought the debt ceiling would have to be revisited by February 15th. With increased revenues and a faster growing economy, the debt ceiling debate probably won’t happen until summer. Long after the primaries are finished for 2014.
So why should a die hard member of either caucus vote for this deal? On the Democrat side, the conventional wisdom is the government shutdown was good for them. The last good day they had was the last day of the shutdown. But that’s not the whole story. In 8 battleground states, where Democrats have incumbent senators who are in trouble, recent polling says they are in real trouble. Those states, by and large, went for Mitt Romney in 2012 and those voters blame Democrats for the shutdown, not Republicans. On top of that, the Obamacare roll out hurt them in those states, too. These Democrat seats are up for grabs and the combination of the government shutdown and the abysmal roll out of Obamacare will stick with these incumbents. Democrats will vote for this budget deal because they want to take it off the table for 2014.
You might even see a “normal” schedule for the budget this year.
On the House Republican side, every model shows the GOP picking up seats in the U. S. House and this deal will allow the very conservative members (just north of 100) to vote “No” and still get the deal passed.
For me, I think this deal gives us the best chance to start 2014 fresh and have the best possibility of a normal budget process. I know, we haven’t had one since the mid 1990s, but a girl can always hope.
In addition, my focus is on winning the United States Senate back from the Democrats. And I’ll be doing everything in my power to work towards that. We will never get the kind of spending cuts needed to change the trajectory of our financial picture until Republicans are back in control of the United States Senate. And then we have to hold them accountable.
I’m a radical pragmatist, so I’m always in a good mood.