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Donald Trump, SEC Primary, Ted Cruz
Some who are studying the impact of the SEC Primary on the presidential race are now speculating that Southern conservative voters could determine the GOP nominee, leading to a Trump or Cruz victory.
Of the 2,470 GOP convention delegates (1,236 of which are needed for the nomination), only 80 (barely 3 percent) will be allocated immediately in February, via the New Hampshire (30 delegates) and South Carolina (80 delegates) primaries. Another 60 delegates (slightly more than 2 percent) will begin the allocation process in the Iowa and Nevada caucuses, a process that could take several months to be finalized.
…In contrast, 595 of the 2,470 GOP convention delegates—24 percent– will be up for grabs on March 1, “SEC primary day” across eleven states. (Three additional states—Colorado, North Dakota, and Wyoming, are also scheduled to hold “non-binding” caucuses the same day).
Though none of these eleven states are “winner take all,” all but one have a “minimum threshold” a candidate must hit before a single delegate is won.
The minimum threshold to obtain delegates varies between 15 percent and 20 percent. That minimum threshold should have a Darwinian effect on lower-tier candidates in these states. Fail to reach the threshold, and you receive no delegates.
That’s good news for the two candidates who consistently exceed 15 percent in the most recent polls in these states: Donald Trump in every state, Ted Cruz in almost every state. It’s bad news for a crashing Ben Carson and every other candidate who has yet to reach 15 percent in any state poll.
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